Russia perceives itself to be engaged in a conflict with NATO allies, although not in a military capacity at this stage. This belief allows the Kremlin to allocate resources to conduct probing attacks on NATO defenses to test vulnerabilities and boundaries. These actions form part of a broader strategy by Russia to disrupt NATO support for Ukraine by targeting supply chains and infrastructure in Europe.
Despite these efforts, Russia has not crossed a threshold that would prompt a direct military response from NATO. The use of third-party proxies complicates attribution and provides Russia with deniability. However, the attacks lack coordination across Europe and do not always align with the level of support countries provide to Ukraine.
While countries like Germany, France, and Poland have faced more physical attacks due to their support for Ukraine, the UK has experienced fewer incidents despite significant aid contributions. Russia maintains a keen interest in the UK, as evidenced by surveillance activities and intelligence gathering efforts, although disruptions in its European intelligence networks have posed challenges.
The lack of on-the-ground handlers has forced Russia to rely on local proxies, impacting the effectiveness and coordination of their operations. Despite these limitations, Russia is likely to adapt and pose a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.