Health authorities combating the Ebola crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and predict potential virus transmission areas, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers. This novel approach is being employed for the first time in an Ebola response amidst the struggle to contain what the WHO labels as the swiftest-growing Ebola outbreak in history. The outbreak, the 17th in Congo, is caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are no approved vaccines or treatments.
With confirmed cases in six provinces and over 6,250 individuals infected and 3,039 fatalities since the outbreak declaration on May 15, health officials are keen on forecasting possible outbreak locations and efficiently allocating surveillance and response resources. Olivier Le Polain, in charge of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, underscores the significance of population movements in the current epidemic.
By analyzing mobile phone data, responders can pinpoint risks in areas that may not be geographically close but are interconnected through travel patterns. An example highlighted is Ituri province, where the virus is suspected to have originated.
Swedish non-profit Flowminder generates the analysis using anonymized data from mobile phone connections, provided at no cost by Vodacom, Congo’s primary operator. The records show where phone connections occur as people move around the country, enabling researchers to estimate travel patterns between regions. Flowminder assures that they only receive aggregated and anonymous data, ensuring individual subscriber information remains confidential.
The initial analysis centered on Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, the areas believed to be outbreak origins, tracing travel patterns from April 3 to April 23. Subsequently, as the outbreak expanded, Flowminder broadened the analysis to additional impacted regions to ascertain potential travel destinations for individuals leaving infected areas.
Kisangani, a crucial transport junction on the Congo River linking eastern and western Congo, was identified as a focal point of concern due to significant travel patterns. Studies have also illuminated connections between Kisangani, Kinshasa, and regions bordering the Central African Republic and South Sudan, heightening the risk of spread to Congo’s capital and other areas.
As the risk of outbreak extension looms, WHO emphasizes the potential spread to Kinshasa and neighboring nations. Efforts are underway to enhance data coverage by securing agreements with other telecom operators to supplement the current analysis reliant on data from Vodacom.