The World Meteorological Organization announced on Thursday that the El Niño weather pattern is projected to strengthen through 2027 and could potentially become the most potent event on record. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that if the current trend persists, it could surpass any El Niño event observed in the past four decades. The organization’s forecasts indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will endure until February 2027 due to exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, marking the first time such a high level of certainty has been expressed.
A powerful El Niño has the potential to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather events such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño, highlighting the warming trend of the planet’s waters.
El Niño occurs cyclically every two to seven years, characterized by elevated sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakened trade winds. It typically lasts up to a year, affecting regions with intense rains and droughts, particularly across Latin America. This year’s El Niño has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering food shortages in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO anticipates the El Niño event to peak later this year, with lingering effects expected to persist into 2027, leading to elevated global temperatures. Saulo mentioned that the organization is enhancing preparedness and early warning systems to address the potential consequences.
Efforts are underway to collaborate with UN partners and humanitarian agencies to provide crucial climate information for disaster management and various climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy, and water resources. The WMO is committed to supporting these sectors with essential climate insights during this period of heightened El Niño activity.