A recent examination revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to revamp its coal-fired power plants may incur expenses of up to $46.4 billion in the next two decades. This amount surpasses the previously disclosed figure from leaked internal SaskPower documents, which estimated costs at $26 billion over 25 years.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor at the University of Regina specializing in economics, conducted the analysis to determine the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s strategy to utilize coal-fired plants as a transitional stage to nuclear power and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s study indicates that this plan would be costlier and more environmentally detrimental compared to retiring coal plants and constructing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, which was the province’s original strategy prior to its policy reversal in early 2025.
Dolter utilized data from leaked SaskPower documents disclosed by the Saskatchewan NDP, information submitted to the province’s rate review panel, and some assumptions due to the absence of the provincial government’s internal assessment. He highlighted that incorporating carbon pricing into the equation further accentuates the cost disparities.
Without carbon pricing for heavy emitters, the projected expense of continuing with coal initiatives would amount to $30.2 billion over the next two decades. When carbon pricing is factored in, the total outlay rises to $46.4 billion, aligning with Ottawa’s memorandum of understanding with Alberta earlier this year.
Dolter emphasized that with carbon pricing considered, the financial advantages of an alternative approach become evident. He refrained from speculating on the government’s rationale for choosing this course of action despite the known costs.
When questioned about Dolter’s evaluation, the provincial government provided a statement emphasizing the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s growth. The statement reiterated the government’s commitment to an “all-of-the-above” energy strategy, incorporating the use of Saskatchewan’s resources and transitioning to nuclear energy.
The decision to refurbish the coal-fired plants in Saskatchewan in 2025 was a shift from the province’s prior trajectory towards a coal-free future. Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan expressed concerns about potential population decline if coal-fired plants were discontinued, highlighting the city’s dependence on natural resources.
Looking ahead, Sernick expressed optimism, anticipating new developments supported by the coal refurbishment and potential transition to nuclear energy. However, the financial and legal risks associated with deviating from federal regulations on clean electricity and coal-fired power pose challenges for Saskatchewan’s energy sector. Dolter warned that potential legal battles could lead to significant financial losses if the province is compelled to shut down refurbished coal plants despite substantial investments.
The province’s stance on coal regulations and carbon pricing has raised questions regarding compliance with federal mandates and the ensuing legal consequences. The ongoing debate surrounding Saskatchewan’s energy choices underscores the complex interplay between economic, environmental, and legal considerations.