Australian researchers have developed a groundbreaking tool to assess the climate impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil venture serving as a pilot study. The Carbon Impacts Tracer can predict the effects of proposed mines, offshore oil rigs, and other energy initiatives on global warming, glacier melt, and human fatalities. Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, unveiled the tool during a virtual press briefing, emphasizing its ability to connect emissions from individual projects to their planetary warming contribution and subsequent impacts.
By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals and scientific literature, the online tool calculates the projected increase in global temperature and its real-world repercussions, such as coral reef degradation, food production decline, and job losses. The platform was launched with case studies on several Australian ventures, a project in the U.K., and the Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada, led by Equinor, which could be the country’s first deepwater oil development located east of St. John’s.
According to the tool, CO2 emissions from the Bay du Nord project could reach 188 megatonnes over two decades, resulting in a minute temperature rise. Additionally, it predicts a rise in heat exposure for thousands of individuals, an increase in heat-related deaths in Europe, glacier loss, minimal sea level rise, job losses, and a rise in poverty levels. Equinor has not yet responded to requests for comments on these findings.
While not directly involved in the Carbon Impacts Tracer project, climatologist Joel Finnis from Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador acknowledged its significance in consolidating diverse research findings for public comprehension. He highlighted the tool’s potential to challenge arguments favoring new oil projects by showcasing their severe societal and environmental impacts.
Maria Nawaz, from the University of New South Wales, emphasized the historical difficulty in linking fossil fuel projects to their tangible consequences and expressed hope that the tool would aid governments, regulators, and the public in evaluating proposed ventures. She anticipates its use in climate litigation and by insurers and economists to assess risks and economic implications. The tool currently focuses on proposed projects, with plans to expand coverage as more data becomes accessible.