In the previous federal election, Donald Trump’s tariff threats and comments regarding potentially making Canada the 51st state caused an unexpected turn of events in Quebec. Discussions about defending the province’s interests took a backseat to safeguarding Canada against its neighboring country.
During the election, Mark Carney’s Liberals capitalized on this sentiment, achieving the party’s best outcome in Quebec in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois. Debates concerning Quebec identity, secularism, and language were overshadowed by the noise originating from Washington.
As the provincial election commences today, there is speculation on whether the U.S. president could once again play a significant role. The focus leading up to the campaign launch was dominated by the newly imposed tariffs, compelling every party leader to demonstrate their ability to protect the province from the economic repercussions.
Philippe Fournier, a polling analyst and founder of Qc125, highlighted that managing the economy during uncertain times might be the primary concern for voters at the ballot box.
Before the trade conflict intensified, polls indicated that healthcare, housing, and the cost of living were the top concerns for voters. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) faces challenges after two terms in power and an unhappy electorate. The party stands to benefit the most if economic stability becomes a priority for voters.
Quebec, heavily reliant on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports, is forecasted to be heavily impacted by the new tariffs, according to a recent report by Oxford Economics.
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leader of the Parti Québécois (PQ), reassured the public by stating that a referendum would not be pursued until the end of Trump’s second term. Despite this, recent polls indicate a close race, with the ruling CAQ making gains against the PQ and Liberals.
CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette holds an advantage from being in power during this tumultuous period. She unveiled financial aid programs targeting businesses most affected by the tariffs, aiming to mirror Carney’s rise to popularity after taking over an unpopular government.
Fréchette’s opponents are challenging the perception that she is best equipped to handle the current situation. They argue that her approach lacks alignment with federal negotiation tactics and fails to protect Quebec’s interests effectively.
Various parties have presented their strategies for addressing the challenges posed by the trade war. Québec Solidaire proposed a $1 billion annual “Trump provision” to support affected workers and businesses, while Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives pledged $47 billion in spending cuts and tax relief.
The upcoming election will likely be influenced by which leader can convey stability amid the uncertainties brought by Trump and the tariffs. However, the frontrunner for this role remains uncertain.