Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s levels by almost 50%, with approximately 20 million barrels transported to Asia between July and mid-October, as reported by traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets via icy Arctic waters, traditionally seen as a riskier and costlier route. However, this year, it gained favor due to disruptions in other key routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region, according to traders.
The escalating conflicts with Iran and Ukraine have led to a surge in tanker freight rates to unprecedented highs, driving Asian refiners away from U.S. crude oil and towards alternative sources from the Middle East and Latin America.
Despite the high tariffs for NSR usage, which necessitates icebreaker support, it has become a more economical choice compared to the usual route via the Red Sea to Asia, traders noted.
For Russia, as the overseer of the NSR, it offers a secure option to European waters where vessels carrying its oil have faced detainment this year.
Preliminary estimates from traders suggest that the volume of Russian oil shipped through the Arctic route is expected to increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by around 35% this year compared to 2025, as stated by CEO Alexander Dyukov during a press briefing in Moscow.
In addition to oil, Russia also delivers substantial volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia via the NSR and anticipates a rise in LNG shipments this year following the commencement of Arctic LNG transports.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok in September, President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s projection that cargo turnover through the NSR will double to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade.
The inauguration of Rosneft’s massive Vostok Oil project in northern Russia last month has already contributed to the escalating volumes utilizing the NSR.