After Andy Burnham expressed interest in participating in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer found himself in a difficult position. Allowing Burnham to run could fuel speculation about a potential leadership challenge, as only Members of Parliament are eligible for the leadership role. Furthermore, this move could create complications for Labour in facing unexpected mayoral by-elections in Greater Manchester amid upcoming challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May. Poor results in these races could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with Burnham and other contenders eyeing the top leadership position.
The alternative, which the Prime Minister ultimately chose, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the costs to taxpayers of organizing a mayoral race and the diversion of party resources from the May elections. This decision may have eliminated an immediate risk, but it could have adverse long-term repercussions.
Following the announcement, numerous MPs criticized Labour’s governing body, accusing them of orchestrating a setup against Burnham. This situation could potentially elevate Burnham to a symbol of discontent among backbenchers who perceive the decision as excessive control from Downing Street. The Parliamentary party has already demonstrated a tendency towards rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple reversals, and further provoking them will not make Starmer’s position any easier.
A government minister suggested privately before the decision that allowing Burnham to run could have been a bolder move, and blocking him may portray Starmer as weaker. Notably, No10 has been actively discrediting Wes Streeting, a perceived leadership contender, and has now prevented Burnham from returning to Westminster. Opinions on the motivations behind these actions vary, but many lean towards perceiving them as signs of vulnerability.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal disputes that the public is growing weary of. However, in reality, internal tensions may persist until Starmer can enhance Labour’s diminishing poll ratings, leaving doubts about his future leadership. Despite having critics, Burnham remains a popular figure and has cultivated a positive image outside of Westminster, earning him the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
While Labour secured Gorton comfortably in 2024, the party faces a challenge in retaining it as Reform intensifies efforts to cause an upset, and the Greens target left-leaning voters. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking him on the by-election’s outcome, emphasizing the stakes for Labour. If Labour were to lose this by-election now, significant consequences would likely follow.