The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has adjusted its 2026 home sales forecast downward for the third time this year, with September data indicating a decrease in sales nationwide. Initially anticipating a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now projects a 5.2% decline in home transactions compared to the previous year. This revision follows similar adjustments made in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has led to increased bond yields, subsequently affecting fixed mortgage rates, as highlighted by CREA. While there was a slight uptick in monthly activity over the summer, CREA’s senior economist Shaun Cathcart anticipates that rising oil prices once again and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada to combat inflation will deter more potential homebuyers from entering the market in the remaining months of the year.
Cathcart noted the ongoing market challenges due to U.S. tariffs and rising lending rates, emphasizing the prevailing uncertainty that may discourage individuals from engaging in the real estate market this fall.
Royal LePage, a real estate company, echoes similar sentiments expressed by potential homebuyers, with President and CEO Phil Soper stating that the autumn housing market has been softer than anticipated, attributing it to prospective buyers’ caution amidst global uncertainties.
In September, the CREA reported a decline in home sales, with figures showing a 2.3% decrease compared to August and a 7.7% drop from the same month last year. Additionally, newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% on a month-over-month basis, with new supply trends declining since September 2025.
The average national home price stood at $666,538, reflecting a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. While markets in Vancouver and Toronto exhibited weakness in September, regions such as the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, previously strong markets, have also begun to cool off.
Looking ahead, CREA foresees a rebound in home sales next year. Anticipating limited rate adjustments by the Bank of Canada and increased borrower certainty regarding lending rates, CREA predicts a 4.4% increase in home sales for 2027.