A recent peer-reviewed study highlights a lesser-known threat to cocoa production, emphasizing heavy rainfall as a significant weather risk. The study, led by environmental fellow Anna Lea Albright at Harvard University, suggests that while heat and drought are traditionally emphasized, heavy rainfall poses the strongest threat to cocoa cultivation.
Over the past few years, cocoa prices have surged, impacting consumers globally. In 2024, cocoa prices spiked to over $12,000 per tonne due to various factors, including severe flooding in West Africa, the largest cocoa-growing region with over two million farmers. Leslie Agyare, founder of Three Mountains Cocoa in Ghana, expressed the challenges posed by excessive rainfall on cocoa farming this year.
The study, focusing on Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer globally, revealed that extreme rainfall during flowering significantly limits cocoa yields more than temperature variations. Excessive rain can harm delicate cocoa flowers and pods, leading to fungal infections like black pod disease. The research also indicates a clear climate trend with warmer air holding more moisture, intensifying heavy rainfall events during the wet season.
Despite the risks posed by extreme rainfall, the study also highlights other threats to cocoa production, such as aging trees and illegal mining. Experts suggest interventions like fungicide use and better drainage systems to mitigate fungal diseases. Agyare emphasizes the need for infrastructure investments to enhance cocoa farming practices and reduce dependency on individual farmers for post-harvest activities.
The impact of climate shocks on cocoa farming in West Africa is making the profession less appealing and more challenging. Concerns arise about the sustainability of cocoa farming in the face of changing climates, potentially leading to a shift away from cocoa production in chocolate-making. Companies like Nestlé have started exploring alternative chocolate options, like cocoa-free chocolate made from sunflower seeds, to ensure a more resilient supply chain.
The study raises questions about the future of cocoa farming and the need for sustainable practices to combat climate challenges. As the industry faces unprecedented price spikes and volatility, the focus shifts to supporting smallholder farmers and promoting more resilient cocoa alternatives to safeguard the future of chocolate production.