Keir Starmer has concluded his visit to the Far East this weekend, securing important agreements from Chinese President Xi Jinping. Despite interference from Donald Trump, Downing Street is relieved that the Beijing trip went smoothly. Now, focus shifts to domestic matters, particularly the upcoming by-election in Greater Manchester.
On February 26, voters in the traditionally Labour stronghold of Gorton and Denton will choose a new MP following Andrew Gwynne’s resignation. The decision to block Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster by Labour’s governing body has raised concerns among some MPs, who worry it could backfire.
There are mixed opinions within the party regarding the outcome of the by-election. While some fear losing the seat due to the decision on Burnham, others, like MP Karl Turner, remain optimistic about their chances. Turner emphasized the importance of winning the by-election to alleviate pressure on party leadership.
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the by-election, with Labour, Reform, the Greens, and the Workers’ Party all playing significant roles. He noted the changing dynamics of the constituency, once a safe Labour seat, now facing a more competitive race.
Luke Tryl, another polling expert, described the by-election as a three-way contest between Labour, Reform UK, and the Greens, with tactical voting likely to influence the outcome. The presence of Nigel Farage and Reform’s strong stance is shaping the race, leading to strategic considerations among voters.
Tactical voting and party dynamics will play a crucial role in determining the victor of the by-election, with voters grappling with the strategic choice to counter Reform’s influence. The uncertainty surrounding the election outcome underscores the importance of strategic voting in a highly contested race.